Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 24 ISSUE 3
Written by Aurelia Vasilica BĂLAN, Elena TOMA

This study examines the trend of meat imports from Romania using monthly data from January 2011 to May 2024. The analysis aims to project the values of meat imports until May 2025 by using various forecasting algorithms to understand import trends and seasonality. The study used the TempoOnline database for data analysis, and the forecast used two methods: a seasonally adjusted regression model and the Holt-Winters methodology. The regression model integrated seasonal indices to forecast future imports, while the Holt-Winters method, which adjusts for trends and seasonality with smoothing constants, provided a more advanced prediction. The forecast results indicate that meat imports have increased significantly, especially after 2022, influenced by factors such as the pandemic and geopolitical instability. The regression model (Model 1) predicted a decrease in imports for 2024 compared to 2023, while the Holt-Winters model (Model 2) projected a substantial increase. The Holt-Winters model showed higher accuracy with lower RMSE and MAPE values than the regression model. In conclusion, both forecasting models provided valuable information on the trends in Romanian meat imports. The Holt-Winters model proved more accurate, predicting higher future imports with more appropriate values. The findings suggest that meat imports from Romania will continue to grow, with significant fluctuations due to seasonal effects. We recommend the Holt-Winters approach for more accurate future planning due to its superior forecasting performance.

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