Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 22 ISSUE 4
Written by Olesia TOTSKA

Ukraine has a significant export potential of agricultural products. Ukraine’s acquisition of the status of a candidate for EU membership and the desire to take a worthy position in the global agro-food markets necessitates a permanent monitoring and forecasting of the value of Ukrainian exports of agricultural products. The actual data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2014–2021 regarding the commodity structure of foreign trade in agricultural products of Ukraine were used for the analysis. It was determined that the following types of goods had the greatest export potential (over USD 100 million annually): 02 meat and meat preparations; 04 milk and milk products; eggs; honey; 08 eatable fruits and nuts; 10 cereals; 11 flour-grinding products; 12 oil seeds and fruits; 15 animal or plant fats and oils. At the same time, the following types of goods had the lowest export potential (less than USD 10 million annually): 06 seedlings and other trees; 13 shellac natural. In the analyzed period, all types of goods (except 04 milk and milk products; eggs; honey; 14 plant materials for producing) had positive dynamics of most or half of export indicators. For each of the 15 types of agricultural products, forecast indicators of the value of exports for 2022 are constructed according to the author’s methodology in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy intervals, where optimistic and pessimistic estimates are calculated on the basis of actual data, taking into account average growth rates.

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