Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 22 ISSUE 3
Written by Ahmed BUSARI, Olaide AKINTUNDE, Timothy AGBOOLA, Lateef JIMOH

This study investigated the determinants of cocoa export earnings in Nigeria between 1980 and 2019. Secondary data spanning between 1980 and 2019 were collected from reputable sources such as Food and Agriculture Organisation Statistical Database (FAOSTAT), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Central bank of Nigeria (CBN). Descriptive Statistics, Augment Dickey Fuller Johnson co- integration, and vector error correction (VECM) were the analytical tools employed in the study. Results indicated that variables of the model were stationary after first difference and were co- integrated. VECM results shows that domestic production of cocoa negatively influences cocoa export earnings in the short run, while cocoa output and gross domestic product (GDP) had direct relationship with cocoa export values in the long run, but exchange and interest rates had negative effect on cocoa export values over the study period. It is concluded that domestic production, GDP, exchange and interest rates were the variables determining the cocoa export earnings over the study period. It is recommended that policy reforms on coco production and value chain, flexible exchange and a single digit interest rates would improve cocoa earnings and its contribution to GDP.

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