ASSESSING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELECTED CLIMATE VARIABLES, HUMAN DISEASES AND CROP PRODUCTION USING ARDL APPROACH – THE EXAMPLE OF ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 17 ISSUE 3
Written by Adewale Isaac OLUTUMISE, Emmanuel Chilekwu OKOGBUE, Akinyemi Gabriel OMONIJO

This study was designed to investigate the relationship between crop production and selected climatic variables and human diseases in Ondo State, Nigeria. Time series data spanning 32 years (1982 to 2013) were used for this study. The analytical tools employed for this study were descriptive statistics and auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results confirmed the presence of long run equilibrium between crop production and temperature, rainfall, incidence of malaria and incidence of pneumonia. The results of long run estimates showed that rainfall and pneumonia coefficients were significant but negatively affected crop production in the long run, while all the variable except temperature were also significant but negatively affected crop production in the short run. The error correction model (ECM) value of -0.142 which was significant at 5% level showed that about 14% of disequilibria from the previous year’s shock converge to the long run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, disease prevention and environmental sanitation under the framework of the primary health care programme that can reduce human exposure to climate–related health risks should be strengthened by the government.

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OLUTUMISE A.I., OKOGBUE E.C., OMONIJO A.G. 2017, ASSESSING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELECTED CLIMATE VARIABLES, HUMAN DISEASES AND CROP PRODUCTION USING ARDL APPROACH – THE EXAMPLE OF ONDO STATE, NIGERIA. Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 17 ISSUE 3, PRINT ISSN 2284-7995, 253-264.


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Copyright 2012. To be cited: Scientific Papers. Series “Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development“
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