Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 24 ISSUE 3
Written by Desislava TOTEVA

The challenges facing the development of agriculture and rural areas in Bulgaria during the CAP program period 2023-2027 are related to the renewal of production potential and the modernization of activities to improve competitiveness, added value, and well-being in rural areas. The enhanced environmental requirements laid down in the new CAP resulting from the "Green Deal" and the "Farm to Fork" strategy define the need to accelerate the pace of modernization of farm operations and improve the viability of rural areas. Closer linking of the Green Deal targets with economic, social, and environmental goals, as well as the mechanisms to achieve them, will define the future of the industry and rural areas in the coming decades. The purpose of this study is to forecast the main trends in the development of agriculture and rural areas in Bulgaria until 2027 in the context of the Green Deal. A linear scenario model is applied and the sensitivity of selected indicators is identified under certain assumptions in the independent variables. In crop production and specifically in the viticulture sector, efforts to close the production cycle must continue, while at the same time working in the direction of the possibilities for the realization of the final product - wine, increasing its competitiveness and using the potential of diversifying activities, such as wine tourism. The scenario approach is widely used in assessing the impact of climate changes on the future development of the viticulture sector in Bulgaria. According to the proposed scenarios for the selected indicators in rural areas, it can be assumed that the negative trend of depopulation in rural areas will continue, but at a slower pace than before, without a sharp deterioration in demographic indicators.

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