Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 25 ISSUE 3
Written by Koffi Romaric GASSI, Ufuk GÜLTEKIN, Hacer ÇELİK ATEŞ

The objective of this research is to analyze the competitiveness and volatility of Benin’s cotton export prices. The study utilizes monthly data covering the period from January 2010 to December 2023, collected from the FAO (Faostat) and the International Trade Centre (ITC) and analyzed using EViews 12 software. Competitiveness was assessed using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Net Export Index (NEI). Price volatility was examined through the ADF stationarity test and time series econometric models, specifically ARIMA, ARCH, and GARCH. The findings from the NEI and RCA indices indicate that Benin consistently exports more cotton than it imports and holds a substantial comparative advantage in this sector. In terms of price fluctuations, the GARCH(1,1) model, chosen according to statistical criteria, highlights notable and sustained volatility. Projections from this model suggest a rising trend in price volatility, pointing to an upcoming period of increased uncertainty in Benin’s cotton export markets. These findings provide crucial insights for the development of economic and trade policies aimed at mitigating market risks, optimizing investments, and improving decision-making among stakeholders in the cotton sector.

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