Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 19 ISSUE 2
Written by Ionut Daniel PETRE

The paper aimed to analyze the situation of the natural change of the population in close connection with the risk of poverty or social exclusion in the period 2007-2017 both in Romania, rural Romania and in the South Muntenia region and the rural South Muntenia. The data were collected from Tempo Online data base of the National Institute of Statistics and the main methods utilized in the research have been: index method, comparison, analysis and synthesis, correlation and regression. In Romania and in its territory the population is facing with a continuous decline regarding the number of births and natality and an increased number of deaths and a high mortality rate. As a result the population change has a negative value which is higher a higher froma year to another. A similar situation was found in the South Muntenia, considered a very poor region, where 44 % of the population lives in the rural areas and the incomes are small coming mainly from agriculture. In the rural South Muntenia, the population declines, and the births are lower, and mortality is higher. In 2017, the natural population change in Romania accounted for -55,910 and in the rural Romania for -44,653. In case of the South Muntenia region, the natural change of the population was also negative and increased to -16,161, and in the rural areas it reached -13,264 in 2017. Romania registered 35.7 % risk of poverty and the South Muntenia a much higher one 40.9 % in 2017. Despite that there was noticed a decreasing trend in the analyzed period, the poverty is still high in Romania and mainly in the rural areas. The negative natural change of the population was caused 52 % by the high risk of poverty and social exclusion, as proved by the correlation coefficient ( r=0.718) and regression function, Y= 2,263.065 X -140,307. The Romanian Government has to establish an efficient strategy to reduce the poverty risk or social exclusion in order to improve the natural population change and the living standard both in the urban and rural areas.

[Read full article] [Citation]

SPUPOPUPNO1