Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 23 ISSUE 4
Written by Deniz SARICA, Merve Muruvvet DAG

Cotton is a significant raw material source for textiles, food, and other sectors, as well as a major influence in worldwide and national trade and industry. The primary goals of this research are to examine the cotton production and trade in which Türkiye plays a significant role in global production; to analyse international competitiveness; and to forecast the next ten years using data from 1961 to 2020. The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) method will be employed to investigate its international competitiveness, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins model will be used to forecast the comparative advantage of the Turkish cotton industry. According to the findings, Türkiye ranks seventh in cotton production, but there was a 21% decrease in 2020 (1.8 million tonnes) compared to 2005 (2.3 million tonnes). When world cotton exports were examined, the USA, Brazil, and India came to the fore, while Türkiye ranked 14th with 87 thousand tonnes in 2020. When the observed cotton RSCA indices for Türkiye were examined, the results revealed no competitive advantage and no specialisation in cotton exports over time. While the RSCA index was 0.68 in 1980, it was down until -0.42 in 2010. In 2020, the RSCA index was -0.03. Furthermore, the forecasting analysis shows that the RSCA indices for cotton export will gradually decline due to periodic fluctuations, eventually falling to -0.18 by 2030. Consequently, the inadequacy of cotton production to meet consumption, as well as cotton imports, may be expressed as reasons for Türkiye’s comparative disadvantage.

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