Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 25 ISSUE 1
Written by Liliana CIMPOIEȘ, Maria GRUBLEAC

Drought, hail, floods and heavy rains are and will represent the biggest problems that the agricultural sector will have to face due to climate change. Moldova is experiencing significant climatic variability, affecting agricultural productivity. Main agricultural crops are vulnerable to climate change. In this research, the vulnerability of main agricultural crops as wheat, maize and sunflower will be assessed to changes in factors as precipitation (drought), temperature fluctuations, and sown area. A polynomial regression model was applied. The dataset for 2007–2023 included annual yield, average temperature, precipitation level, and sown area for selected crops in the Republic of Moldova. To assess the impact of drought on the yield of particular crops, various scenarios with decreased precipitation level (20, 40 and 60%) were applied. Combined effects of drought, temperature and area was applied to simulate changes in yield for selected crops. The polynomial regression model was used to forecast the corresponding yields of wheat, maize, and sunflower after adjusting for precipitation, temperature, and area for each scenario. A heatmap was used to visualize the predicted yields of selected crops across different combinations of drought levels and temperature changes. The results show that while temperature and precipitation effects differ by crop type, sown area is a major positive determinant of crop yields. Higher temperatures and drought conditions worsen yield declines, especially for wheat and maize, but under certain circumstances, cooler temperatures and mild drought might increase sunflower yields.

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