Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 25 ISSUE 3
Written by Angel SAROV

The purpose of this study is to analyze and assess the viability in rural areas in Bulgaria. The focus is on demographic and social indicators. On this basis, three scenarios for the development of rural areas by 2030 are proposed, with reference to the main priorities of the Green Deal. The working-age population was chosen as an indicator for evaluation. In a methodological aspect, an extrapolation method of proportions based on the Territorial Share Shift Analysis (TSSA) proposed by Ivanov (2024) is approved. The model is proportional and extrapolated, which means that trends are more reliable than exact figures. The results present a positive trend in rural areas by 2030, expressed in an increase in the number of working-age population based on statistical data for the period 2010 - 2020. Naturally, under the hypothesis of preserving the socio-economic characteristics of these regions. The most likely scenario to happen is the realistic one. According to the results, favorable changes in demographic aspect are expected, which will affect the economically active population in rural areas of Bulgaria. At the local level, cross-border cooperation and investment in infrastructure projects should be strengthened.

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