Published in Scientific Papers. Series "Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and rural development", Vol. 21 ISSUE 2
Written by Natalia BONDINA, Igor BONDIN, Irina PAVLOVA

Based on the industry specifics of the agricultural business and on the basis of the results of the structural and coefficient analysis of the organization's cash flows, the article substantiates the need for rational cash management and forecasting their future flows. To carry out competent coordination of calculations and ensure timely cash flow, methodological approaches to forecasting cash flows based on the use of a multiplicative time series model and a study of the influence of seasonal and random components are proposed. Application of the proposed methodology on the example of a specific agricultural organization led to the conclusion that when using an adaptive model with a seasonal component, the calculated values have significant discrepancies with the actual data. The average value of the relative error exceeded 5%. Checking the randomness of the levels of the residual component based on the turning point criterion made it possible to characterize the constructed model as adequate, make a forecast for the coming year, and identify the main tools for improving the efficiency of cash flow management.

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